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Global light vehicle sales forecast – January 2024 edition

Automotive World's monthly global light vehicle sales forecast provides a snapshot of past and future sales volumes broken down by region

Global light vehicle sales snapshot

During 2023 most markets improved, several more strongly than forecast at the beginning of the year, with double-digit rises in several regions including Europe and North America.

The improvement reflects:

  • supply conditions have mostly returned to normal, enabling remaining pent-up demand to be satisfied;
  • net prices (sticker price minus incentives) have generally fallen;
  • global economic growth was slightly better than anticipated at the start of the year.

The full-year out-turn for 2023 (including estimates for some markets) was a rise of 8.3% in global demand to 83.9m units, still well below the pre-pandemic level, but the eighth highest figure of the past 30 years.

The rise in 2023 was well ahead of our start-of-year forecast for an increase of 5.1%, mainly reflecting the fact that most economies performed more strongly than expected at the start of the year.

Our forecast for 2024 is for further growth in global demand but at a significantly slower pace than 2023 as the pent-up demand has now been met and the macro-economic conditions remain tough.

Global light vehicle sales update

Light Vehicle sales (000s)20222023(e)2024(f)Change -v- prior yearNotes
China24,042.825,220.926,020.03.2%Economy expected to grow at slower pace in 2024, around 4.6% from 5.2% estimated in 2023
N. America (US & Canada)15,380.417,041.517,760.04.2%Momentum from 2023 to carry forward into new year, helped by price competition and incentives.
EU+EFTA+UK12,937.014,838.715,210.02.5%Sales growth slowing but still positive in 2024.
S. America4,833.05,161.65,360.03.8%IMF 2023 GDP forecast raised to 2.3% from 1.9%. Brazil consumer confidence edged lower in December but Mexico highest since February 2019.
India3,929.34,212.24,260.01.1%Growth underpinned by new product launches and stable market sentiment.
Japan4,121.44,632.84,730.02.1%December consumer confidence rose to highest since December 2021, particularly willingness to buy durable goods.
Asean2,794.02,824.72,871.61.7%Economic outlook for Asean countries still positive. GDP in most countries expected to rise at faster rate than 2023.
Middle East2,451.82,640.62,603.1-1.4%Double-digit decline expected in Turkey (regional leader) after two strong years.
Change -3.3%8.3%2.7%

LV Sales, Top-5 markets: Dec-23 -v- yr ago (units, 000s)

LV Sales, Top-5 markets: Jan-Dec 2023 -v- yr ago (units, 000s)

LV Sales, Next-11 markets: Dec-23 -v- yr ago (units, 000s)

LV Sales, Next-11 markets: Jan-Dec 2023 -v- yr ago (units, 000s)

Top-16 markets, change in LV Sales: Dec-23 -v- yr ago (%)

Change in LV Sales, Top-16 markets: Jan-Dec 2023 -v- yr ago (%)

Top-16 markets, change in LV Sales: Dec-23 -v- yr ago (000 units)

Top-16 markets, change in LV Sales: Jan-Dec 2023 -v- yr ago (000 units)

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